Heiken Ashi System On Forex

Heiken Ashi Is A type of candlestick chart that shares many characteristics with standard candlestick charts, but differs because of the values used to create each bar. Instead of using the open-high-low-close (OHLC) bars like standard candlestick charts, the Heikin-Ashi technique uses a modified formula:

Close = (Open+High+Low+Close)/4
Open = [Open (previous bar) + Close (previous bar)]/2
High = Max (High,Open,Close)
Low = Min (Low,Open, Close)

The Heikin-Ashi technique is used by technical traders to identify a given trend more easily. Hollow candles with no lower shadows are used to signal a strong uptrend, while filled candles with no higher shadow are used to identify a strong downtrend.

This technique should be used in combination with standard candlestick charts or other indicators to provide a technical trader the information needed to make a profitable trade.

U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Gains Slowed in April

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending slowed in April after record fuel costs, a slump in home values and a deteriorating job market eroded consumer confidence.

The 0.2 percent gain in spending followed a 0.4 percent increase in March, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Incomes grew 0.2 percent, bolstered in part by the government's tax rebates. Separate reports showed business activity dropped for a fourth month in May and consumer sentiment decreased to the lowest level since 1980.

Retailing stocks slumped after the figures reinforced forecasts for spending growth to slow this quarter to the weakest pace since 1991. J.Crew Group Inc., the casual-clothing retailer, reduced its earnings forecast late yesterday, citing a nationwide drop in the number of shoppers visiting its stores.

``Consumers are spending cautiously,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in spending. ``The economy is in a grey area between recession and slow growth.''

Treasuries rallied, sending benchmark 10-year note yields down to 4.03 percent at 11:28 a.m. in New York, from 4.08 percent late yesterday. The Standard & Poor's 500 retailing index dropped 0.6 percent to 402.05.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, slowed in April, today's Commerce report showed. The gauge rose 0.1 percent, compared with a 0.2 percent increase the previous month.

Fed Policy

Investors are convinced central bankers will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent when they meet next month. The odds of no change rose to 100 percent today from 98 percent yesterday and 90 percent a week ago.

The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment decreased to 59.8, the lowest level since June 1980, from 62.6 in April. The measure averaged 85.6 in 2007.

Deteriorating confidence indicates that government tax rebates may only provide a temporary boost to economic growth in coming months. Economists forecast consumer spending gains will slow to a 0.5 percent annual pace this quarter, the weakest since 1991, from a 1 percent pace in the first three months of the year.

``Consumers are really very downbeat,'' Richard Iley, senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

Economists forecast spending would rise 0.2 percent, according to the median of 73 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Incomes were forecast to rise 0.1 percent, according to the survey. The increase masked the first drop in employee compensation since April 2007.

Inflation Eases

The central bankers' preferred gauge of prices was up 2.1 percent from April 2007, matching the 12-month increase in March.

Adjusted for inflation, the figures used in calculated gross domestic product, spending was unchanged after a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, the report showed.

Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, increased 0.2 percent, after increasing 0.3 percent the previous month.

The economy grew at a 0.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter, more than previously estimated, as the trade deficit shrank to a five-year low, revised Commerce figures showed yesterday. Consumer spending rose at a 1 percent pace last quarter, the smallest gain since the 2001 recession.

Trimming Budget

The surge in food and fuel expenses is causing Americans to become more budget conscious.

``People are probably wary of the economy, wary of food and gas prices being higher, and looking to economize,'' Stephen Holmes, chief executive officer of Wyndham Worldwide Corp., the franchiser of Ramada and Super 8 hotels, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week.

Inflation-adjusted spending on durable goods, such as autos, furniture and other long-lasting items, dropped 0.2 percent after decreasing 1.3 percent. Purchases of non-durable goods fell 0.2 percent after increasing 0.5 percent.

Spending on services, which account for almost 60 percent of all outlays, increased 0.1 percent for the second month.

The government is counting on its economic stimulus initiative to revive growth. The Treasury last week said it sent $4.9 billion in tax rebates in the fourth week of the program, raising the total distributed so far to $45.7 billion.

Rebates Effect

The extra money may not bring much relief. Households will spend about $90 billion more this year on gasoline if fuel prices remain at current levels, according to a forecast by economists at Credit Suisse Holdings in New York. That will consume about 80 percent of the more than $110 billion in rebate checks being sent.

Tiffany & Co., the world's second-largest luxury-jewelry retailer, today forecast full-year earnings that may beat analysts' estimates on a surge in jewelry sales abroad and foreign-tourist spending in the U.S.

First-quarter sales at U.S. stores open at least 12 months were unchanged from a year earlier, with a 4 percent decline at its locations outside the main store in New York. Chief Executive Officer Michael Kowalski said in a statement that conditions were ``challenging'' in the U.S. and that he didn't expect an improvement until later this year.

Other companies, while seeing no indication of a rebound in spending, are also not seeing any further deterioration.

Estee Lauder Cos., the maker of Clinique and Bobbi Brown cosmetics, said its full-year earnings will be higher than it estimated in February.

``We see no indication at the moment that consumer spending is improving, but we don't see anything that it's getting worse,'' Chief Executive Officer William Lauder said in a May 6 phone interview.

Why Consumer Confidence Index Important?

The US Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through their activities of savings and spending. Global Consumer Confidence is not measured. Country by country analysis indicates huge variance around the globe. In an interconnected global economy, tracking international consumer confidence is a lead indicator of economic trends.

A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use. When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy.

Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending

The Consumer Confidence Index and the Consumer Sentiment Index are two of the most important economic predictors you can watch. Just remember to watch the trend over several months and don’t get caught up in month-to-month hysteria. Understanding the importance of consumer spending and it implications for the stock market will help you become a better investor.

The Consumer Confidence Index measures Americans’ attitudes about current and future economic conditions. It is based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households conducted for The Conference Board. The Board develops a report based on the survey that gives details about consumer attitudes and buying intentions, with data available by age, income, and region. This is compiled into three numbers:

1. The overall Consumer Confidence Index
2. The Present Situation Index
3. The Expectations Index.

If the Consumer Confidence Index is trending upwards, this means that stocks will probably go higher, as well. If Confidence is too high, then the excessive demand it is measuring could trigger inflation, which could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Higher interest rates could also increase the value of the dollar, which could reduce exports and make imports cheaper.

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U.S. Durable Goods Probably Fell as Spending Slowed

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods probably fell last month as companies trimmed investment plans and consumers bought fewer cars and televisions, economists said before a report today.

Bookings for goods meant to last several years fell 1.5 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of 72 economists before the Commerce Department report. Orders excluding transportation equipment, which tend to be volatile, fell 0.5 percent, the economists said.

Businesses are reacting to slower sales and record fuel prices by scaling back on hiring and spending. A slowdown in purchases of equipment, combined with a worsening housing slump and weakening consumer spending on expensive items like autos, may bring an end to the six-year economic expansion.

``There is more weakness to come,'' said Lena Komileva, chief economist at Tullett Prebon Plc in London. ``Manufacturers remain under pressure from a recession in housing, high commodity costs and soft labor markets which are spreading housing weakness to the rest of the economy.''

Economists' forecasts ranged from a decline of 5 percent to a gain of 0.6 percent. The report from Commerce is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

So far, manufacturing has done better than in past economic downturns. While the Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to a five-year low of 48.3 in February and moved up to 48.6 in the following two months, it was still well above the 42.1 reading reached in February 2001, a month before the start of the 2001 recession. A figure of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

Auto Cutbacks

In addition to weakness in housing-related industries, automakers have led the factory downturn as consumers retrench.

Ford Motor Co., the second-largest U.S. carmaker, last week said its U.S. sales fell 9.8 percent this year through April as gasoline prices approached $4 a gallon. Ford said it would pare North American production 15 percent from a year earlier this quarter, and would cut third-quarter output as much as 20 percent.

``There is no doubt the slowing economy here in the United States presents a challenge for us,'' Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally said at the company's annual shareholders meeting earlier this month. ``We are taking further cost-reduction actions.''

Increases in fuel costs are among the biggest concerns. Oil rose to more than $135 a barrel last week, the highest ever.

Companies that export have fared better, continuing to grow during the slowdown. A shrinking trade gap added 0.2 percentage point to first-quarter economic growth, according to Commerce Department figures.

Still, Federal Reserve officials, in minutes of their April 30 policy meeting released last week, lowered their 2008 economic growth projection by about a full percentage point to 0.3 percent to 1.2 percent.

``The outlook for business spending remained decidedly downbeat,'' the minutes said.

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